Water levels in Minnehaha Creek decline through May

Water levels across the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) declined through most of May 2026, as abnormally dry conditions set in for the first time since December 2025, according to the U.S Drought Monitor. While May was largely dry, two rainfall events briefly elevated water levels. 

The month’s most significant event produced nearly 2 inches of precipitation across the watershed from Sunday, May 17, through Tuesday, May 19. This caused Lake Minnetonka’s level to rise approximately 3 inches, peaking at 929.26 feet on May 19. Flows in Minnehaha Creek increased more than 100 cubic feet per second (cfs), hitting 133 cfs at Hiawatha Avenue on May 17.

Water levels gradually declined until a pop-up storm produced over half an inch of precipitation on Sunday, May 31. The highest rainfall totals were concentrated over the Lake, causing its level to rise approximately 1 inch and peak at 929.15 feet. With smaller rainfall totals in the lower watershed, Creek flow marginally increased to 36 cfs at Hiawatha Avenue. Water levels have since stabilized and subsided, with the Lake currently sitting at 929.15 feet and the Creek flowing at 27 cfs at Hiawatha Avenue.

Given recent dry conditions, Gray’s Bay Dam has discharged only the minimum rate allowed, based on water levels, throughout May. With minimal rainfall in the short-term forecast, dam discharge is currently 20 cfs, to provide flow to the Creek, while balancing evaporation rates on the Lake, in accordance with Zone 4 of the operating plan. MCWD will continue to evaluate water levels, along with short- and long-term precipitation forecasts, to determine discharge rates that align with the operating plan’s goals.  

As of June 5, 2026, the Twin Cities has received 9 inches of precipitation, which is nearly 2 inches below normal for this time of year, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). 

BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL LED TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS

The Twin Cities experienced below-normal precipitation in May 2026 as the month ended with a total of 2.24 inches, which is approximately 60% of the normal monthly total. Nearly all of the month’s precipitation fell during two rainfall events while the rest of the month remained dry. This precipitation deficit created “abnormally dry” conditions in the watershed by the end of May.

Currently, the NWS predicts about half an inch of rainfall over the next week, and its 8–14-day outlook predicts slightly above-normal precipitation. The NWS also predicts equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation for the month of June, which is typically the wettest month of the year with a normal monthly total of 4.58 inches.

LAKE MINNETONKA

Lake Minnetonka currently sits at 929.15 feet, which is approximately 3 inches below the Lake’s Ordinary High Water Level of 929.4 feet. The Lake level gradually decreased throughout most of May as below-normal rainfall and rising temperatures led to increased evaporation. In the Twin Cities, the average daily evaporation rate during the month of June is 0.25 inches per day, which is equivalent to approximately 150 cfs, according to DNR monitoring data from 1972 to date.

The month’s two rainfall events briefly elevated the Lake level, and it reached 929.26 feet on May 19 after rising approximately 3 inches with rainfall and subsequent inflows from the upper tributaries. Since then, the Lake level has declined and is expected to continue gradually declining until the upper watershed receives significant rainfall. 

MINNEHAHA CREEK

Currently, Minnehaha Creek is flowing at 27 cfs at Hiawatha Avenue. Creek flow peaked for the month on May 17, increasing more than 100 cfs with rainfall received during the mid-month storm before subsiding. 

With minimal rain in the near-term forecast, Creek flow is expected to stabilize near the Dam’s discharge rate as the Creek receives groundwater inflows and dam discharge. 
USGS provides real-time readings for Minnehaha Creek at Hiawatha Avenue, as well as historical flow and other water data for this station.